For those of you who know me, this next statement may come as a shock to you all. I’m a stats geek (waits for the shock…or is that laughter…to subside). Yes, it’s true, I admit it. I get into the numbers behind the scenes. If you can put a percentage or some other quantifying value to something, I’ll try to figure it out. This often makes me somewhat near-sighted in things that I’m doing (such as coaching softball), but also serves me well in other areas, such as Fantasy Football.
I started playing Fantasy Football almost 9 years ago, and since then, I’ve done pretty well. I play in two primary leagues – one with a group of guys here in Mechanicsburg, and another with a group of guys from back home in McKeesport. In the last 4 years, I’ve won the McKeesport league once and the Mechanicsburg league once. I’ve come in 2nd in the McKeesport league twice and the Mechancisburg league once. I’ve never finished worst than 3rd in the McKeesport league, and never finished worse than 5th in the Mechanicsburg league. I’ve also entered random online leagues, where I usually end up in the top 3rd of the ‘league’ I am placed into. I’m not bragging here…well, at least not too much…but I point this out for a reason. A lot of my success in these leagues has to do with luck, I will admit. But a lot of it also has to do with the fact that I pay attention to the details and the stats – how a player is doing from week to week, how a player has performed historically against a certain team, etc.
Another area that I’ve been somewhat successful in is making shrewd trades with other teams during the season. I’m not afraid to give up a good player to get a player in return that has a high ceiling. I’m not afraid to turn down what looks like a good trade on paper because I know the player I’d be getting faces a tougher stretch than what I’d be giving up.
So, given the fact that I appear to know what I’m doing, I’m dumbfounded as to the ridiculous nature of some of the recent trade offers I’ve been getting. One of my leagues is a Keeper League, and I will not bore you with the details of what this means or how it plays out. But here are the details of my current conundrum. I have Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne currently on my team, and I can only keep one of them. According to most 2008 forecasting services, these two are the #1 and #2 projected receivers in the league. I obviously have to part ways with one of them, but I’m not opposed to trading one of them for Fair Market Value.
And that is where things get interesting. I think I’ve proven that I know a thing or two about fantasy football, yet there are some who think I’m either naïve, or just an extremely generous guy (which I do try to be). In the last two weeks, I’ve been offered 9th, 11th, and 12th round draft picks in three different trade offers for Randy Moss. Keep in mind this is not all three for Moss. It was three individual deals - 9th for Moss, 11th for Moss, 12th for Moss. This left scratching my head. Moss is, or would be, a first round pick in this particular league. I'm going to work under the assumption that my fellow team owners feel that I'm just an extremely generous guy who would be willing to just give up a player and ask for nothing in return. While this may be the case in the real world, in the fantasy football realm, I do expect a fair return on the deal. Is that so wrong?
If I wanted to give up my best players for nothing in return and be left with no draft picks to back-fill their positions, I'd apply to be the general manager of the Pirates!
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1 comment:
You said you can only keep one. Doesn't that mean that if you don't make a deal, you will part with one of the players for nothing in return?
It's about leverage, and from the sound of things, you have about as much leverage as a team trying to trade a guy everyone knows they are going to release anyhow.
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